BetaGeoModel.expected_probability_no_purchase#

BetaGeoModel.expected_probability_no_purchase(t, data=None)[source]#

Compute the probability a customer with history frequency, recency, and T will have 0 purchases in the period (T, T+t].

The data parameter is only required for out-of-sample customers.

Adapted from Section 5.3, Equation 34 in Bruce Hardie’s notes [1].

Parameters:
data*pandas.DataFrame

Optional dataframe containing the following columns:

  • customer_id: Unique customer identifier

  • frequency: Number of repeat purchases

  • recency: Time between the first and the last purchase

  • T: Time between first purchase and end of observation period, model assumptions require T >= recency

tint

Days after T which defines the range (T, T+t].

References

[1]

Fader, P. S. & Hardie, B. G. (2019) “A Step-by-Step Derivation of the BG/NBD Model.” https://www.brucehardie.com/notes/039/bgnbd_derivation__2019-11-06.pdf